Statistics

Some COVID 19 statistical data is now available.  I noted the fact that in one month one infected person on average infects another 400 people.  I sat at the desk with pen and paper to do the maths.

One person

1 month later    400

2 months later  160,000

3 months later   25.6 million

4 months later   10,245 million

5 months later   4.096 billion

6 months later   1638.4 billion

The estimated total world population is 8 billion

There is currently no vaccine

As of today Australia has 6314 COVID 19 cases.  3141 people have recovered and 59 have died.

The graph below shows the identified new cases.

The first case was identified in late January.  On 1 February the Federal Government blocked all arrivals from China.  Further restrictions followed in quick succession.  The two spikes in the above graph are likely a consequence of the initial exposure whilst the subsequent decline in new cases is a result of the prompt actions by the Federal and State governments. 

To date there has been only one serious error when the NSW authorities allowed passengers to disembark from the Ruby Princess cruise ship in Sydney without testing.  This has resulted in a number of ‘hot spots’ both in Australia and overseas.

The public has been informed the ‘peak’ has yet to occur.  However if the public continues to observe social distancing and other restrictions, the peak may actually be quite small.  The major issue will likely be with elements of the general population who may prematurely believe the crisis has passed and return to previous behaviour.

In my opinion the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison didn’t perform well during the very recent ‘bushfire crisis’.  However he learned very quickly and to date has provided excellent direction and leadership.  Credit must also go the State and Territory leaders who have put aside their political beliefs and aspirations to work for the common good. 

It is possible COVID 19 may be eliminated in Australia within the next 3-4 months.  But with a vaccine some 12 months away it’s also likely overseas arrivals will be severely restricted until that occurs.  Moreover arrivals will probably have to go into 14 day quarantine when they set foot on Australian soil.  Once a vaccine has been developed then overseas arrivals will likely have to prove they have been vaccinated before landing.

Once the pandemic crisis has passed there will be an even longer period of recovery for the economic crisis.