Tuesday, 4 February 2020

Cynical amusement, the dishwasher and the plague

I can’t but help be cynically amused by the Trump impeachment.  During the last presidential election Trump’s campaign rallying cry was “Drain the Swamp” tapping into the groundswell of voter disillusionment with their elected representative in Washington.  I doubt many of those Trump voters recognised they were voting for one of the largest toads in the swamp.  Some still haven’t realised it!

Now we have a situation where those Republicans “in the swamp” are cynically doing all they can to protect the largest toad in the swamp.  You couldn’t make this stuff up!

Meanwhile Jan is complaining about the dishwasher pre-wash cycle.  The cycle occurs intermittently and only when the door is open.  Of course Molly doesn’t recognise this as the pre-wash cycle…. It’s the entrée!  Doesn’t matter how many times Jan scolds her and mentions cutting her tongue on a sharp knife; Molly keeps going back!

The current outbreak of the coronavirus in China had me thinking about earlier pandemics.

The first was the 541AD Plague of Justinian which mostly affected the eastern Mediterranean. In 2013 researcher confirmed the cause of the plague was Yersinia pestis. The ancestor of the Justinian plague strain has been found on the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and China.  The plague killed between 13-26% of the world's population at that time.

The second plague was "The Black Death" which reached Europe in 1348. It originated in or near China and spread along the Silk Road. The death toll is estimated at 350-400 million.

The third plague began in Yunnan province in China in 1855. This plague appears to have been spread by two different methods. The first was bubonic and similar to the first two plague pandemics being transmitted by rats and fleas. The second, more virulent strain, was primarily pneumonic in character with a strong person-to-person contagion. Approximately 10 million died, mostly in India and China.

By the 20th century the western world had identified links between good public health and disease control. Vaccines had started to be developed and by the 1940's antibiotics.

In 2002 SARS appeared in China and rapidly spread around the world. SARS isn't bubonic. It's pneumonic and can be spread by human contact.

In 2012 the MERS coronavirus was identified in Saudi Arabia. The source was subsequently traced back to Zarqa, Jordan. MERS was of major concern as millions of muslims from around the world were heading to Saudi Arabia for the annual Haji. MERS has a 42.6% mortality rate. Fortunately modern public health measures limited the spread

This year we have another coronavirus outbreak and again the source is China. Four of the recorded five world pandemics appear to have originated in or on the border of China.

The source of these outbreaks appears to be animals where the virus jumps between species through eating affected animals, poor hygiene, living in close proximity. They can be contained through isolation of people and affected areas. However it is vital to find the source in order to prevent a re-occurrence.

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