This is just my opinion and I’d be pleased if a reader could explain why I’m wrong!
During the last two weeks the world became a far more dangerous place and in my opinion it was caused by the historical actions of the USA.
During the past 150 years America has oscillated between isolationism and acting as a world leader. Culturally, your average American is an isolationist. They are inward looking and are not particularly interested in what is occurring in the rest of the world.
The USA only entered WW1 at the very end. Afterwards the US President, Wilson was a strong support of the establishment of the League of Nations (first attempt at the creation of the United Nation) but America never became a member and reverted to isolationism.
During the period 1939-1941 the US President (FDR) walked a quiet and fine line attempting to support the Allies whilst pacifying an isolationist Congress and Senate. It wasn’t until Pearl Harbour that the USA discarded isolationism.
In the immediate aftermath of WW2 the USA entered a number of security treaties (eg, NATO, ANZUS). However it didn’t take long for US politicians to decide this wasn’t in their isolationist interest and there have been no legally binding security treaties since. No doubt Israel and Taiwan would love a security treaty with the USA!
America saw communism as a threat to their capitalist beliefs and set about isolating the USSR. The Cold War commenced. In the picture below I show the world from the USSR perspective. The USA was successful in surrounding the USSR. The consequences of a nuclear war between the superpowers resulted in a number of localised conflicts. However the superpowers ensured none of them came into direct conflict (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan).

The Cold War ended when President Regan’s “Star Wars” caused the financial collapse of the USSR. Gorbechev agreeing to the reunification of Germany and the independence of USSR satellite states.
During the 1991 negotiations between the USA and USSR Gorbechev reputedly asked the USA Secretary of State, James Baker if Russia could join NATO. This was refused. However Baker gave a commitment NATO would not expand further East.
In 1999 NATO expanded accepting Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The USA had breached the agreement. Russia was not happy.
With President Clinton’s approval NATO further expanded East in 2004 when a further 7 former USSR satellite states joining ( Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) Then in 2007 Albania and Coatia joined. Russia saw a tightening net encircling her. A second breach of the agreement.
In 2017 Montenegro joined followed by North Macedonia. A third breach of the agreement.
I don’t doubt the majority of these new member states were fearful of Russia and saw NATO as a security blanket.
Talk of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO was the final straw for Russia.
Putin had already destabilised Georgia and saw a rapid military action as a means to ensuring Ukraine became a client buffer state between Russia and an expanding and threatening NATO.
The invasion didn’t go to plan. Putin’s advisers had over estimated the ability of their military and under estimated the resolve and capacity of the Ukrainian’s.
The west saw an attack on a sovereign democratic country and poured resources into Ukraine along with attempts to isolate and financially cripple Russia. The problem was the USA, which was vacillating between support for democracy and isolationism.
During Trump’s first term (2016-2020) it was quite clear he is an isolationist and his focus was MAGA. The MAGA supporters are clearly isolationist and have a strong powerbase within the Republican party.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 Biden was able to send support to Ukraine, but it was sporadic as he attempted to garner support from both Democrats and Republicans. However Trump was able to thwart or delay support by appealing to Republican politicians through his MAGA base.
If Harris had been elected president of the USA then support for Ukraine would likely have continued. Whilst Russia has vast reserves of manpower and would have continued to fight irrespective of casualties, it would be a shortage of military equipment and the collapse of the economy that would have forced Russia to the negotiating table from a position of weakness. Putin would have been replaced as he cannot afford to be seen to have failed.
However isolationism in the USA was on the rise. Americans were not interested in a war that they didn’t see as relevant to them and were more interested in MAGA. They voted for Trump.
Trump promised to end the war in 24 hours and then within 100 days of taking office. In order to achieve this he will give Russia what it wants; Ukraine as a destabilised buffer state. In return America will gain access to Ukrainian rare earth minerals.
NATO member states are now fully aware they can no longer shelter under the American military shield. Trump is right! The reality is they have been taking advantage of the USA and spending significantly less on defence since the end of the Cold War. Finding the money (and people) to increase military strength will be a significant issue for NATO countries.
I suspect Ukraine may have the resources to continue fighting for another 12 months whilst it endeavours to reach some type of conflict resolution with Russia. However the result will be that Russia keeps all the territory it has gained and there will be a neutral Russian compliant government in Kyiv. Forget any thoughts of NATO and EU membership.
Georgia will also decide against NATO and EU membership.