Win–Lose

It’s so darned hot outside I’ve decided, as a retired man of leisure, I can wait out the heat inside the air conditioned house.  Further north the temperature is forecast to reach 46C whilst in our suburb the temperature is in the mid to high 30s.  Actually its been so hot the bituminous paint and Sikaflex on the battery box are still sticky.  Yes…. I discovered that the hard way!

Meanwhile on the other side of the continent two storm systems have collided bringing torrential rain.  No doubt that will bring some relief from the drought stricken farmers, but I also expect there will be significant local flooding and corresponding property damage.  Everyone’s insurance premiums will be risking next year!

As someone on the outside looking in I'm fascinated by the machinations of BREXIT. Will the UK roll over and remain; will there be a second referendum; or will it leave without a deal and move to WTO rules.

Back in 2013 the then PM, David Cameron made a speech promising to renegotiate EU membership should the conservatives be re-elected. The Conservatives were re-elected and Cameron attempted to renegotiate the UK's membership. In early 2016 he advised the nation of the results of his negotiations and a referendum was held. Cameron's deal was rejected and the majority voted to leave the EU.

Theresa May was subsequently elected as the new PM. She had campaigned to remain but stated she was committed to exiting the EU. Almost 21 months have passed since the UK formally notified the EU of its intention to leave and the negotiated 'deal' looks almost certain to be rejected by parliament. The PM has seen a number of members of her cabinet resign; including two BREXT secretaries supposedly responsible for negotiating the new arrangements with the EU. One can only assume both of them found their position untenable through meddling, isolation and overruling from No10. The current deal appears to be solely owned by the PM. I suspect in her efforts to please everyone she has managed to please no one.

It would be political suicide for Theresa May to roll over and withdraw the notification to leave. Actually it would probably be political suicide for the major parties. There could be a second referendum. However since 2015 the British people have had three opportunities to clearly show they wish to remain in the EU, but the 2016 referendum showed a majority wanted to leave. Will the British be like the Irish, Danes, French and Italians continuing to vote until they give the "right" answer?

What is so frightening about WTO Rules? The majority of other nations successfully trade using them. Moreover the UK already uses them when trading with non EU members.

It was interesting to note what happened on the UK stock exchange when Theresa withdrew her "deal" from being voted on by parliament. The value of shares fell..... but nowhere as far as the share prices in the EU!

It's my belief the EU either needs the UK as a member or as a vassal state (ie, Norway) and the bureaucrats in the EC are gambling this can be achieved. Finally, consider that whilst the British political establishment tears itself apart over the contents of the proposed deal, the leaders of the 27 other members of the EU took a mere 40 minutes to agree and accept the negotiated deal. Not hard to see who thinks they got a good deal. I believe the current deal is a Win - Lose rather than a Win - Win. But then the EU wasn't looking for a Win - Win.